RICH MORAN                                                                                        7/16/2025

WALSH PURE SPREADER

-Pure Hedge Division-

            SEP-DEC CORN SPREAD (ZCU25 – ZCZ25)

We’ve been keeping an eye on the SEP-DEC Corn Spread (ZCU25-ZCZ25).  I last wrote about it on June 20th when it settled -15¾.  Since then, it traded sideways between -14½ and -17½ through last week. Today the spread just made a new contract low at -19.

It has been very apparent that the corn market has been on the decline since February and the SEP-DEC corn spread has also been on the decline as Sept-Corn has been winning the race down verses Dec-Corn.  If this downward trend in the corn market continues, I think the spread can continue to go more negative in the direction of Full-Carry (-31.21).  Even if the corn market itself starts to level off or bounce back to some degree, I think the ZCU25-ZCZ25 spread can possibly continue to go more negative.  December might remain stronger than September as we may expect that the supply and demand to not start normalizing until we are approaching December. 

In June I suggested that if the SEP-DEC Corn Spread made a new 52-week low below 17¼, it might be a good time to short the spread. It did make that new low of 17½ on 6/25/25.  If you have not yet shorted the spread, I still feel getting in at -17½ might be a good play as long as we stay below the 14-day (-17) and 21-day (-16½) moving averages. It has not settled above both of those averages since trading -17½ on June 25^th.   If it does get above, and stays above both moving averages, it might be time to get exit the trade.  Other than that, I would risk 3.5 cents or $175 Per Spread to -14.  Full Carry is 31.21 so I am thinking -26 as target to start looking to take a profit as last year’s low was -26¾.  That would be a profit of 8.5 cents or $425 Per Spread.

Risk 3.5 cents or $175 Per Spread to make 8.5 cents or $425 Per Spread plus fees and commissions

Following up on some past trade ideas:

1. 7/11/2025:  ZSQ25-ZSX25 – Today’s Settlement: -7

(AUG-NOV’25 Soybean Spread) – If you are already short the spread, I suggest holding on them as long as they stay below the 14-day and 21-day moving averages.  Also, if they get back to your entry level, get out at a scratch.  I don’t like to turn winners into losers.  If you are still short at around +2.5, I would be looking to buy them back at around -15.5 for an 18 cent or $900 Per Spread winner.

If you are not yet short the spread, I would still be looking to get short near -2, risking 5 cents or $250 Per Spread plus fees and commissions.

1. 7/9/2025: (LEG26x2)-GFQ25-ZCU25 – Today’s Settlement: -288.22

(FEB’26 Live Cattle x 2, AUG ’25 Feeder Cattle, SEP ’25 Corn – Cattle Crush Spread) – Still looking to get short and waiting to fall below the 14-day and 21-day moving averages.

1. 7/2/2025:  ZMQ25-ZMZ25 – Today’s Settlement: -15.1

(AUG-DEC’25 Soybean Meal Spread) – Still looking to buy this spread if we can get above the 14-day and 21-day moving averages.

1.  6/25/2025: ZWU25-ZWZ25 – Today’s Settlement: 

(SEP-DEC’25 Wheat Spread) – I suggest leaving our bid in at -25 with the same risk parameters (risk 5 cents to make 14 cents).

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Rich Moran

Senior Commodities Broker

RMoran@walshtrading.co

Direct : (312)985-0298

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